What The Results Of The NH Business Resiliency Survey Mean For Commercial Real Estate

In June, the University of New Hampshire Survey Center worked on behalf of the NH Small Business Development Center to conduct a survey of over 1,500 small businesses in New Hampshire. The survey was distributed through over 50 business organizations throughout the state, and the highlights can be found here https://www.nhsbdc.org/2020surveyresults. The questions asked in the survey were specific to the economy and COVID-19.  

We wanted to share our thoughts on the results, as it impacts commercial real estate.  Let us start with the more empirical data from the survey, as questions relating to a business owners belief or concern can be heavily swayed by many subjective items.

Employment is a key driver of real estate consumption. For office space, a full time employee will need 200 to 300 square feet of space in an office environment, though there is less of a clear correlation in the retail and industrial markets.  In February of this year a similar survey noted that all businesses in the data set averaged 22 employees, while the June survey resulted in 18. However, a positive sign is that the decline in employment was centered on only 40% of the businesses surveyed.

The suggestion from this correlates with the essential/non-essential data. Just over half of all of those surveyed were deemed non-essential. These were a wide range of retail, hospitality, and some service businesses.  It remains to be seen, but it appears that the steep decline in employment was centered on the non-essential businesses within the retail facing world. Largely speaking, office employment appears to remain steady. 

In addition to employment data, the survey also drew inference on businesses ability to meet their other commitments, such as paying rent. Close to half of all businesses surveyed claimed their revenue dropped by 50% or more. What is alarming is a majority of the businesses surveyed were unable to defer or modify any payments to vendors, such as landlords. Clearly this would create a huge imbalance that is not a surprise to anyone.

To reclaim these lost revenues, businesses sought new funds from various services to meet obligations.  Of the relief programs supplied by the Federal Government or the State, the Payroll Protection Program was utilized by 60% of all of the businesses, the Main Street Relief was used by about 40%, and the Economic Injury Disaster Loan was used by about 25%.  To get into the numbers, it appears that food service and hospitality were more likely to take out the EIDL Loans or the Main Street Relief Funds. These are the same businesses who were more likely to have their employees go onto unemployment while their businesses were deemed non-essential.

More subjectively, a majority of business owners feel that the NH Economy will recover within the year. But, business by business, there is concern about the forthcoming changes. A strong majority see work from home being a key focus of their business planning, along with changing a physical location. The data does not go into more specifics, but it is clear that we all are looking at ways to be more flexible with our space. It remains to be seen if this translates into a lower demand for office square footage.

Of note on the retail side would be that close to two thirds of all respondents see the need for curbside pickup and the same amount for delivery. In a practical sense, what will that mean for civil engineering moving forward? Do we need new lanes and parking spots to accommodate the quick in and quick out that these concepts demand?

The data is always to be taken for the snap shot it is. Commercial real estate is slow moving, as leases, purchases, and developments take time. It remains to be seen how these statistics will impact the details of the commercial real estate deal.

Major Changes Coming To Rental Property In New Hampshire On July 1st

Beginning on July 1 there will be major changes to the prior eviction stays in New Hampshire that were put in place through Executive Orders earlier in the pandemic. However, apartment tenants who have concerns about rent payment should be able to access the new $35M fund that will be set aside for assistance.

On the apartment rental side, throughout the pandemic there has been some concerns about payment of rent from both renters and landlords. While unemployment rates have risen to historical highs, renters without jobs have been concerned about payments. Offsetting these concerns has been an infusion of additional funds from the federal government to increase unemployment benefits. The net result has been that tenant defaults and rent contraction has yet to surface in a major way. However, with the expiration of the expanded unemployment benefits, there is concern of some folks losing their ability to pay.

The CARES Act, passed by Congress, also afforded each state with so called Flex Funds. New Hampshire’s share was $1.2B, and it has been used for various COVID related challenges. One recent announcement, was that Governor Sununu will be taking some of those funds and directing them to housing assistance:

“Governor Chris Sununu has authorized the allocation and expenditure of $35 million from the CARES Act Coronavirus Relief Fund (“flex funds”) to support families or individuals in need of housing assistance as a result of COVID-19. Of the allocated $35 million, $20 million will be initially expended, with $15 million being held in reserve, for rent stabilization and housing support.”

The goal of the program is to provide assistance for those folks who may not have the funds to pay, or may otherwise have back payments on their apartments that they may need to clear up. More on the fund can be found here: https://www.goferr.nh.gov/covid-expenditures/new-hampshire-housing-relief-program.

The goal is to have the funds and the distribution set up by July 1, which coincides with the reopening of evictions.

On March 17, the Governor announced that he was putting a freeze on evictions throughout the pandemic. While there were a narrow band that could move forward, non-payment evictions were stopped. As a practical matter, with the court system shut down, there was no channel for the process to go through. This stay on evictions was for all asset classes. Office, Industrial, Retail, and Apartments, were all collectively stayed on having evictions. As of July 1 this is being lifted as a result of Executive Order 51. More info on this can be found here: https://www.governor.nh.gov/sites/g/files/ehbemt336/files/documents/emergency-order-51.pdf

It is clear that the goal is to soften the concern of non-payment by providing some floor of support to those in need through the $35M flex funds, and dove tailing that with the lift on the eviction freeze. It is worth noting that many landlords and tenants on the commercial side have worked through payment plans, and the hope is that the landing this summer, for all asset classes, will be as soft as it can be.

Landlords and tenants alike should also take interest in the fact that the Executive Orders are not the only governing documents relating to evictions. As part of the CARES Act, the federal government did put a stay on evictions for certain federally backed mortgages on apartments. All parties should research accordingly.

July 1 is right around the corner, and it is very important for all parties to read about the funds, understand if there is appropriate access to them, and see how these new orders affect them, their families, and their businesses.

Contrasting Boston's Return to Work With New Hampshire's, And How It Could Affect The New Hampshire Office Market

On Memorial Day week, Boston City Mayor, Marty Walsh, announced the Return to Workplace Framework for Commercial Spaces the full details of which can be found here: (https://www.boston.gov/news/return-workplace-framework-commercial-spaces-boston).

Today we contrast this with the Stay at Home 2.0 initiative by New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu and speculate what Massachusetts’ policy means for office space, particularly along the corridors to New Hampshire.

It is worth acknowledging by almost any standard, Massachusetts has been harder hit by COVID-19 than the Granite State.  Reopening standards and regulations surrounding masks and social distancing tend to be stronger in the Bay Stay. As it relates to office space in New Hampshire, the standards for the Universal Guidelines have been set by the corner office, and no additional local regulations have superseded it. However, to the South, there is a statewide standard for office space, and in this case the Mayor of Boston has added additional layers to that standard.

When the stay at home orders are lifted in New Hampshire, office employers and their staff who were previously “non-essential” can start going back to their bricks and sticks offices.  Currently, the regulations on these businesses are centered on the employees and employers, not the built environment. For example, the standards discuss temperature checks and Q&A with people entering the building.   Some in New Hampshire are receiving guidance from the Re-Opening Taskforce and then subsequent guidelines endorsed by the Governor that is more specific to that industry.  So, for example, hair stylists have specific standards that really apply to just their niche, and the task force has addressed this.

However, in Massachusetts the guidelines for office users are in place and very clear. When they reopen the State has stated that, “businesses and other organizations shall limit occupancy within their office space to no more than 25 percent of the maximum occupancy level.” Keep in mind, for standard office build out with mix of cubicles and hard offices, the average demand is 4 people per 1,000 square feet (sf).  That is a rule of thumb and you should consult your local code to check what is appropriate for your business. So, the standard would be 1 person for every 1,000 sf under the new reopening order.  

In addition, the statewide orders would ask for cubical barriers to be taller than a standing person, that common areas be reconfigured, and other broad based social distancing goals. Within Beantown, further restrictions are in place, such as requirements for elevator density, lobby and reception areas, as well as cafeterias. These guidelines are very specific.  As most of the office environment is multi tenanted in the city, the reading of these does create a challenge for both tenant and landlord as to the compliance.

While these specific standards for office space have not yet been released in New Hampshire, we do know that in both New Hampshire and Massachusetts there is a phased approach for these reopening’s. As metrics of COVID-19 improve (or god forbid worsen) the standards may change over time.

What will this mean for the office market moving forward in New Hampshire and Boston? Many have speculated, and we have commented, that there could be dramatic impact from COVID on the office leasing market. Some bloggers have stated that larger offices, with only 1 or 2 people per 1,000 sf, will be the new norm, and office demand will rise. While others have said that only a skeleton crew will go to offices, while most work from home, and office space will plummet. But these trends are too early to tell. The only clear piece of data is that for those employers who are looking to get back into their buildings, there is exploration of new office furniture such as the aforementioned taller cubicles.

However, in light of our headline, we should discuss what these guidelines will do to the cross border tenants. Estimates are around 80,000 people travel from New Hampshire to Massachusetts each day.   It is not out of the question to believe that regardless of what standards are created in New Hampshire, that some employers who see benefits of in person office space versus work from home may open satellite locations in New Hampshire, rather than have team members commute. 

In the long run, it will be curious to see if this speculation will play out on a broader scale in the office market, with more New Hampshire based satellites. The corollary would be in the residential real estate market, where there is speculation of a lasting impact on people leaving more densely populated areas to live in more rural environments. If this is true, would it not also follow that the same is true for employers and lessees of office space?

There is much that is speculation, and aside from anecdotal stories about which office users will be opening up when, it is too soon to predict long term trends. Until then we will watch the Stay at Home 2.0 orders as well as the subsequent phasing levels and see how tenants and landlords react.

How The Main Street Relief Fund Will Help New Hampshire's Small Businesses

There is more relief coming for small businesses in New Hampshire through the Governor’s Office for Emergency Relief and Recovery (GOFERR). The relief package was announced on Friday the 15^th of May, which is also the day the first applications could be made. Funding in the amount of $400 million of expenditure has been authorized to be given based upon needs. 

With the authorization of the CARES Act, Congress created waves of relief for individuals and businesses. At this point most of us are familiar with the acronyms of PPP (Paycheck Protection Program) and EIDL (Economic Disaster Relief); there were additional benefits to individuals such as the stimulus checks and expanded unemployment benefits. In addition the CARES Act created Coronavirus Relief Funds. These funds were to be given to each state to be used as the state sees fit.

According to the Treasury, the funds are “to provide ready funding to address unforeseen financial needs and risks created by the COVID-19 public health emergency”. In addition the federal government put up some rails on how the dollars could be spent. Some of that is still up for interpretation so we will leave that for another blog.

New Hampshire was given $1.2 Billion in flex funds, and $400 Million of it has been earmarked for small businesses under the Main Street Relief program. Our interpretation is that the small businesses of New Hampshire really made their cases. The PPP and the EIDLs were helpful. However, some of the benefits of those programs either have been slow to pass or could not be realized by the businesses as they have been all or partially closed during the qualifying period. Additionally, as was widely publicized, the PPP was a race to the application booth which created the need for the second round of funding. 

To put the amount of funding in context, in just New Hampshire the initial round of PPP loans covered some 11,000+ businesses and over $2 Billion dollars. This new Main Street Relief Program will be funded with roughly 20% of that amount. I never thought I would say that $400 Million may seem like limited funds, but it is so. As a result it appears that the State is adding qualifying language to their application process.

The PPP loans were first come first serve, and by and large had no liquidity test for approval. The Main Street Relief funds have two main differences. First, there is an open round of application. So long as you apply by May 29, 2020 you will be eligible. But it does not matter when in that two week period you apply. The second difference is that you must tell the State all of the additional funds you have received from the CARES Act. This presumably will allow them to prioritize the funds to small businesses that were left off of the carousel the last go around.  All of the various dates and detailed information can be found here (https://www.goferr.nh.gov/covid-expenditures/main-street-relief-fund).

From a real estate perspective there are a few items that are not clear, at least not yet. Are independent contractors as small businesses eligible for these funds? Are businesses that are otherwise holding companies for real estate eligible? Are the funds a loan, a grant or a blend? What can the funds be used for within the businesses? It will take time for these things to come to light, but in the meantime our advice is to review the application and make sure you are lined up prior to the May 29 deadline. 

Leases In The Time Of COVID-19

COVID-19 has had a giant impact on our way of life, though at his point that doesn’t need to really be said. But with every day that brings us a new normal that we have to adjust to, it also brings new repercussions. That is also true for the commercial real estate sector, particularly commercial real estate investors and users.

As more and more businesses begin to shut their doors to work from home, or because of government mandates, questions have begun to arise for both owners of commercial spaces and their tenants. The biggest question of all, “do tenants have a right to stop paying rent due to the coronavirus?” This is a complicated question, one that, depending on how long the pandemic lasts, might be answered by the state, if not federal, government.

The answer to the question is, in most cases, no. Whether a tenant has a right to stop paying rent due to “force majeure” or any other number of clauses is ultimately based upon the specific language and terms laid out in each specific lease agreement. This, though, does not take into consideration if a floor or entire building is closed down by either the property manager or owner. Before mandating a floor or building closure, landlords and property managers should carefully review all possible impacts that decision could have.

While the legalese of each specific lease will ultimately determine whether a tenant is required to pay rent, landlords and tenants should still review their leases to ensure they understand their rights in these unprecedented times. 

At the end of the day though, due to the stress that many tenants, especially those in retail and hospitality, will be feeling at this time, the government may see it fit to step in and take extraordinary measures to ensure that businesses and people survive the financial impacts of the pandemic. For multifamily owners and tenants there have already been discussions within government of suspending rent payments, and some states, including New Hampshire, have already suspended evictions. This is also inclusive of commercial evictions as well.

The most important thing for tenants and owners to do right now is open up communication channels to discuss issues both tenant and landlord face, and come up with creative solutions that benefit both parties. For example, relaxing enforcement of continuous operation covenants, or, if a tenant comes to a landlord needing rent relief, entering into short-term arrangements that provide partial base rent abatement.

While challenges do indeed lay ahead, they can be overcome. By understanding that we are all feeling financial and personal stress right now, and finding ways to work with each other, we can come to a common ground that is fair to both parties. Taking this approach in life, and in real estate, will make dealing with the effects of COVID-19 at least a little easier to handle.

Maintaining The Health Of Your Investment Property During COVID-19

The COVID-19 Virus has made a giant impact on the health of people around the world. We encourage everyone to be vigilant and follow the guidelines in place to protect oneself. Not to minimize the health effect, these articles will be about COVID-19’s impact on real estate, which is our expertise. The stock and bond market is widely transparent on a minute by minute basis and we hope to provide a transparency into the real estate market.

COVID-19 has thrown us all into unprecedented times. We’re all getting used to a new normal, and that is also true for commercial real estate investors and users. With the highly contagious nature of COVID-19, and its ability to live on different surfaces for multiple hours, and sometimes days, the cleaning of work spaces and common areas has never been more important to maintain the health of building tenants and guests.

But, responding to this pandemic starts with awareness. Owners and property managers should consider educating their tenants on steps that they can take to limit the chances of others getting sick. Spreading information through emails, mailers, and posted notes can be done to ensure that tenants are aware of what the disease is, how to prevent it, and how landlords and property managers are monitoring the situation and keeping tenants informed of updates, and especially what precautions are being taken.

Awareness is only part of the battle, though. Landlords and property managers should be proactive about disease control measures. The frequency of regularly scheduled cleaning could be increased, with a primary focus on making sure that regularly touched surfaces, such as door handles, counters, devices, etc. are cleaned as frequently as possible. Consider stocking up on disinfectants and supplies, and hand sanitizer and disinfecting wipes could be made available in all common areas.

According to some experts, though, the first line of defense against COVID-19 is improving a building’s air quality. Improving air quality is not only the best way to improve a building’s health, but also give it its biggest ROI. Owners or facility managers could consider running the fans, upgrading the filters, and keeping the filters clean. Also, by letting in fresh air in large quantities, owners and property managers can help dilute airborne contaminants, reducing the risk of infection.

If improving air circulation is not an option, then investments could be made on improving air circulation. By upgrading filters to what’s known as an MERV rating of 13 or higher (which is what hospitals use) filtration systems will be able to catch more than 80 percent of viral particles. Higher humidity ranges, between 40 and 60 percent, are also optimal for lessening a virus’ ability to spread, but tenants’ comfort level should be kept in mind when exercising this option.

In the event that a guest visiting the building has been diagnosed with COVID-19, owners do have an obligation to notify all other tenants and occupants of the building that a person who has entered the building has tested positive for the virus, and what steps are being taken to ensure tenants’ health and well-being. All common areas should be, if possible, closed off for a deep clean and disinfection. Depending on the terms of the lease the tenant signed, owners and property managers may or may not be responsible for the deep clean of the tenant’s space, and that includes any extra precautionary cleaning as well.

Owners, property managers, and even tenants, can no longer sit idly by and hope that COVID-19 doesn’t affect them. It is all of our responsibility to help flatten the curve, and that begins with being proactive about the health of a building. The sooner we flatten the curve, the sooner we can get back to normal.

COVID-19 and Investment Real Estate: Apartments

The COVID-19 Virus has made a giant impact on the health of people around the world. We encourage everyone to be vigilant and follow the guidelines in place to protect oneself. Not to minimize the health effect, these articles will be about COVID-19’s impact on real estate, which is our expertise. The stock and bond market is widely transparent on a minute by minute basis and we hope to provide a transparency into the real estate market. Check back each week for a new look into how COVID-19 is affecting the commercial real estate industry.

In a retrospect, it will be easy to see how the path for COVID-19 was forthcoming, and took some time to hit domestically. But, from the reaction of the stock market, it felt like the impact was overnight. The week that followed was a rollercoaster, but the same cannot be said for the investment real estate market. The reality is that until we see a string of real estate closings we will not be able to pin point the actual market in the investment world. For many apartment owners though, it’s business as usual.

The investment world of commercial real estate has long been a hot market. Nothing speaks that fact truer than apartments. Fueled by historically low vacancy and interest rates, investors have flocked to that asset class, which has driven up the per door price, and driven down the capitalization rates.  In addition, apartments have been seen as an investment class that is protected from some of the concerns in the larger real estate economy. “Everyone needs a place to live,” and, “Amazon cannot take away the need for apartments,” have been phrases of conventional wisdom.

In speaking with investors this past week, these thoughts still prevail. They feel that, in the long run, apartments are one of the safer asset classes out there. Some investors have even made plans in this low interest rate environment, to free up capital for more acquisitions. Others are staying put, waiting to see how the market plays out. 

There are facts that everyone agrees on, though. One is that no one is a seller right now. It is not out of concern that the market is down and investors won’t get their value, but rather that investors do not want to put their money elsewhere. The second is that investors/landlords will need to work through the next few months with their tenants with compassion, with payment plans being one solution, particularly for those tenants with jobs in hard hit industries.

When investors were asked about the impact of the order by the Governor to put off all evictions in the State of New Hampshire, again there was some common ground. Most folks believe that the tenants who will pay are going to pay, and those who will not, won’t. In the end, investors feel the impact of COVID-19 will take a little time to work through the system.

So far folks have not seen changes to their income stream, with some investors noting that they are still getting rental applications. Time will tell, but it appears that the initial reaction from the apartment sector is that the impacts have not been felt.

Are you a landlord? Let us know how the pandemic has been affecting your multifamily/apartment investments in the comments below.

COVID-19 and the Overall Real Estate Market

The COVID-19 Virus has made a giant impact on the health of people around the world. We encourage everyone to be vigilant and follow the guidelines in place to protect oneself. Not to minimize the health effect, these articles will be about COVID-19’s impact on real estate, which is our expertise. The stock and bond market is widely transparent on a minute by minute basis and we hope to provide a transparency into the real estate market.

What at first appeared to be a slow moving pandemic, snapped across our domestic world quickly to start the month of March.  Many of us faced choices on if our businesses would enforce work from home policies, and where our children would be educated and cared for during the school day.  These questions are still playing out and changing on a daily basis. 

The investment markets are in a state of flux. Stocks continue their up and down pace while investors try and get a sense of the next steps in the market. The same rapid movement cannot be said of the real estate market. By nature the real estate cycle is slower. It is a less liquid asset and it takes time to sell and have the market react to external factors. In place leases impact value, and those too take time and have long term. Finally the debt markets impact value, and again, that takes time to work through the system.

At our offices the reaction from users of commercial space have been mixed. Since the week of March 9, 2020 we have seen some folks pull back.  Some of them were expansion tenants, while others were user/buyers with new locations.  For each story of someone delaying plans there is another story of someone moving forward.

•         National users of space, with multiple leases expiring, continue their review to look at the longer picture on relocation choices. They are in the market.
•          Local users, with multiple businesses or divisions, are shifting their focus to those businesses less impacted by recent events that are in need of space. They are still in the market.

These examples may shift overtime, but they do illustrate the types of people who have businesses impacted by COVID-19, but remain in the market to find new lease space.

We will explore more of the investment real estate market over time, but the immediate reaction is, again, mixed. Some investors look at the dip in the stock market and assume that real estate should be at a discount as well, while others see a premium in the asset because of the volatility on Wall Street.  History has shown us that one week is too short of a time to take any meaningful conclusions away, because of the aforementioned speed of the real estate market. 

Certain sectors of the investment market will likely remain strong, such as those properties with apartments, grocers or medical practices. Services that are needed no matter the state of the economy. Additionally, the quality of the income stream is always important, but more so in this past week, as conversations regarding franchisee or franchisors signing of leases is becoming crucial.

This is the first of many articles we plan on distributing to our clients, customers and friends. We are all in this together, and we hope to empower you during this unprecedented time with our collective knowledge.