Tuesday, December 20, 2016

NAI Norwood Group Sells Multifamily in Manchester

Manchester NH – NAI Norwood Group is pleased to announce the sale of a 6-unit multifamily on Dutton Street in Manchester. The 5,000+ SF investment property sold on December 9, 2016 for $360,000 according to the NH Registry of Deeds. Deana Theriault and Mark Dickey represented the seller.

Deana and Mark worked diligently to sell this property for the former owner as it has been on and off the market, unsold, for a time. Their persistence and expertise proved to be advantageous for both the seller and buyer. The seller owns a large portfolio of properties and is currently using NAI Norwood Group’s services to assist in their sales.

NAI Norwood Group is an affiliate of NAI Global, the world’s leading managed network of independently owned commercial real estate brokerage firms.  Through this network of 355 offices in 55 countries, NAI Norwood Group is able to leverage their 45+ years of dedicated local experience around the world. With our extensive background and strong local contacts, we are able to assist individual corporations in negotiating leases, sales, business brokerage, investments, relocation, site selection and development. For more information please visit www.nainorwoodgroup.com. Or contact one of our offices: 116 South River Road, Bedford, NH 03110, (603) 668-7000 or 28 Deer Street Suite 301, Portsmouth, NH 03801 (603) 431-3001.

Tuesday, December 06, 2016

Commercial Real Estate in the Aftermath of the Election

By my count, the 2016 Presidential Election was a mind numbing 596 days and included over 20 different players. We are now down to one President-Elect and a fraction of that time to digest what that means for the United States. Of course the President-Elect was not the only party on the ballot, there were many more down ballot races that narrowed the balance of power in the US Senate and gave the Republicans control of the executive and legislature in Concord. With almost all of our federal election results in New Hampshire being decided by the slimmest of margins with both red and blue victories, I will wager that those reading this article have an equal chance at pleasure and frustration. And while there are many issues that are important in the State and throughout our Country, today’s discussion will focus on issues of concern for real estate, mostly commercial. Spoiler alert: No one has a clue what will happen to commercial real estate as a result of this election. 

At the top of the ticket there is a New York real estate broker President-Elect Donald Trump. He is a licensed broker, which begs the question: “What would it be like to sit through a continuing education course with him?” but I digress. For someone who has made his mark primarily in land, bricks and mortar, his campaign has been very quiet on anything relating to this sector.  The closest we got was in the second presidential debate where carried interest and depreciation were discussed.  While this may have been interesting for someone in my shoes, it really did not help us understand what a President Trump may do as far as changing any current taxation laws on the books.

In Donald Trump’s “Contract with the American Voter”, released in October, he calls for “massive tax reduction and simplification” and the lowering of the business rate from 35% to 15%. This is just one bullet out of twenty-eight and does not expand much further, so we are all guessing on what the details around “simplification” could mean.  In a Nov 10, 2016 Forbes article, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors described that he believes “trimming mortgage interest deductions [and] reducing property tax deductions”, could be on the table with a Trump presidency.  He also added the 1031 Like-Kind Exchange could be a focus, which allows owners to sell and exchange into a larger property, while deferring the taxes that would be owed at that time. I may even add a redesign of capital gains on investment property to this list.

All of this, in theory, makes sense.  Mortgage interest deduction on housing, capital gains shelter on primary homes, capital gain treatment for investors of real estate, keeping 1031 Exchanges as is, if removed could all total up to close to $1 trillion dollars per year to Uncle Sam.  However some of the key personnel in both the US House and the US Senate who have been pushing for reform of our tax code have retired.  Even if that challenge is overcome, there are plenty of objections from special interest groups, not just real estate that would push back.  For federal tax reform, there will be a push from the Republicans to reform.  If it comes, I expect: a cap on all deductions for personal returns or elimination of the “stepped up basis” at time of death for a 1031 exchange investment.

In Concord, it does not appear that there will be a tremendous shake up in the taxation of real estate or commercial real estate holdings.  What is of interest to owners and occupants of real estate is the Governor Elect’s energy plan.  For a typical office tenant, energy consumption can be around 10% to 20% of their overall occupancy costs.  For retail and industrial users, the costs are much higher as the Granite State consistently is in the top 10 highest costs of energy.  Chris Sununu’s plan calls for “increasing the availability of baseload power” and in effect increasing the supply to lower the cost.  It is not clear if this is the path that will succeed or another option will open up, but it is clear that our elected officials know this is on the minds of commercial real estate owners and users.

A major theme of the newly elected officials is deregulation.  President Elect Trump calls for two regulations to go away for every new one that is created.  In real estate speak at a federal level, it means that Republicans are sure to use their new power to change/modified/repeal all or portions of Dodd-Frank to free up lending.  The issue is such a priority that it sits in their party platform.  The theory behind reform is that this regulation used to reign in the mega banks and was akin to using a sledge hammer on a thumb tack for our local community banks.  Some local banks claim to have responded to Dodd-Frank regulation by shrinking their lines of business to avoid more costly regulatory requirements. It is almost certain that the Republicans in Washington will go after Dodd-Frank, what is unclear is how the lenders will respond to the change and will that change lead to more capital for real estate and business development.

Of more interest to occupants and owners of real estate is what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates.  Even though the increase in rates does not have a linear effect on commercial property value, there is a correlation.  While December seems as likely a date as any for a raise to the interest rate, the Federal Reserve is in a no-win scenario, with any action or inaction likely portrayed as a political one.  However monetary policy typically likes stability prior to increase of rates.  With this election cycle being anything but stable, it would seem a drastic rate hike is unlikely but a steady climb over 2017 will be forth coming.  

What is clear is that as a result of the consolidation of power of the Republicans in both Concord and Washington, we are likely to see a good amount of action in the first quarter of 2017. But not even Carnac knows what that will eventually mean for the commercial real estate market.

Chris Norwood is a licensed real estate broker at NAI Norwood Group, Inc. a firm that focuses on commercial real estate sales, leasing and consulting. Chris has actively lobbied with the Realtors in Washington DC for the past six years. Chris sits on the Public Policy committee for both the NH Association of Realtors and the NH Commercial Investment Board of Realtors. He also sits on the Government Affairs Committee of the Manchester Chamber of Commerce.